Cancer prevalence
We estimate there are almost 3.5 million people living with cancer in the UK. This number refers to complete cancer prevalence, which is everyone alive today who has ever been diagnosed with cancer.
The number of people living with cancer in the UK has increased from almost 3 million in 2020 to almost 3.5 million in 2025.
Our cancer prevalence estimates
At Macmillan Cancer Support, we have produced estimates of complete cancer prevalence split by each of the four UK nations, men and women, and the four most commonly diagnosed cancer types, up to 2025.
Why is the number of people living with cancer rising?
There are several reasons why the number of people living with cancer in the UK is increasing. These include:
- The UK population is growing, so there are more people in the UK who can get cancer.
- More people are living to an older age, and age is a major risk factor for cancer, so there are more older people being diagnosed with cancer.
- There have also been increases in the rates of both younger and older people being diagnosed with some types of cancer.
- Gradual improvements in cancer diagnosis and treatment also mean more people with cancer are now living longer after their diagnosis.
How do we estimate complete cancer prevalence?
We have used several sources of data and insights to produce our current estimates.
The four UK cancer registries produce statistics showing the number of people diagnosed with cancer within a certain time frame who are still alive on a particular ‘index’ date. For example, people who were alive on 31 December 2021 and who had been diagnosed with cancer within the past 20 years. This is known as ‘time-limited’ prevalence.
We have combined the latest version of these statistics with insights from the following two sources to estimate complete cancer prevalence for the UK up to 2025:
- Complete cancer prevalence for 2013 from a previous analysis that we published via one of our research partnerships
- The predicted UK growth rates for cancer prevalence from a previous research study that we funded (Maddams et al, 2012)
There is greater uncertainty in projecting figures beyond 2025 as it is hard to know what the future cancer population will look like. It is impacted by factors such as birth rates, migration, deaths due to cancer and other causes, the rate of cancer diagnosis and cancer survival.
Cancer diagnosis, survival and mortality trends are impacted by trends in risk factors such as smoking and obesity, cancer prevention initiatives such as HPV vaccination, cancer screening uptake and improvements in early diagnosis, factors that impact the health of the cancer population, and access to cancer treatment and care.
We have previously published estimates of projected complete cancer prevalence for the years 2030 and 2040, but we have not yet updated these figures using our preferred method, so they have not been included here. We plan to review and update these prevalence projections as a separate project in the near future.